Pre-exposure prophylaxis would maintain HIV prevalence among high-risk gay men at the current level and prevent a prevalence increase of up to 5%, a mathematical model has shown, even if it were taken only half the time and only prevented one in two infections.
However for PrEP to significantly reduce HIV prevalence in this population it would need to be 90% effective and be taken continuously.
If prescribed in either of these two ways it would be barely cost effective. Intermittent PrEP could be more cost effective, but to be so it would need to have higher efficacy than yet demonstrated – around 90%.
The model was presented to the European AIDS Conference by Jonathan Anderson of the Australian National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research. He noted that past analyses of whether PrEP could be cost-effective, based on the US epidemic, had produced contradictory results.
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