Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Simulation predicts PrEP may be effective in high-risk gay/bisexual US men, but cost-effectiveness uncertain

by Derek Thaczuk writing in Aidsmap.

According to a computer simulation, tenofovir/emtricitabine pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) could reduce lifetime HIV infection risk from 44% to 25% among high-risk men who have sex with men in the US, if it is 50% effective at preventing new HIV infections. However, the predicted overall increase in life expectancy was very small, and the average lifetime cost of PrEP provision was estimated at USD $151,600 per person. The study was published in the February 4 edition of Clinical Infectious Diseases.

The study of PrEP – the use of antiretroviral medications before exposure to HIV in the hope of reducing infection risk – has so far been limited to animal studies, preliminary findings of one human trial in at-risk women (previously reported at the Sixteenth International AIDS Conference and now published), and several analyses using computer models, by Desai and others.

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